It’s Day 3 of the BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 Closed Qualifier Round 1, and it brings us a mix of a couple tight matchups and clear favorites. It’s everyone’s first real test of the new season, and we know how much first impressions matter.

M80 vs Gentle Mates

M80 are looking to be in a decent form right now. They opened 2026 with a trophy at fl0m’s Mythical LAN without dropping a single map, giving them some real momentum to lean on, and a good start with JBa on the team. They’re also playing a more composed Counter-Strike than M8, which gives them value in a Bo3 like this.

Gentle Mates on the other hand, are a bit more streaky, and harder to trust over a Bo3. Although both teams are ranked relatively close in the world rankings, M8’s results tend to swing depending on how the early rounds go – if they start well, they can do damage even against stronger teams. But when they don’t, they are most likely to struggle regaining control of the game. And that’s a lot harder to trust over a Bo3, especially against a decent team like M80.

Prediction: M80 wins 2-1.

Inner Circle vs 3DMAX

Inner Circle already know they can beat 3DMAX – they took a win against them at ESL Pro League S22 not that long ago – a win that came over a full Bo3. Inner Circle handled the series well, showing they can stay composed even when the game slows down. But despite showing what they’re capable of, consistency hasn’t followed since.

3DMAX come into this matchup with something to correct. Experience is on their side, and they’ll be looking to repay for how the last series played out.

Prediction: 3DMAX wins 2-0, this time clean.

Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team Liquid

A matchup where neither team get the benefit of being trusted to bet on. NiP are looking better lately stacking up some wins – nothing too crazy, but they look a lot more stable than they did earlier in the season. Closing rounds and mid-round decisions aren’t falling apart as much as they did, and they at least now look like a team that knows what it’s trying to do.

Liquid are harder to read. They have the talent, but it’s rarely backed up by results. When they’re on, they can easily take maps off of much stronger opponents. When they’re not, they can throw harder against weaker teams. It’s all about balance.

Prediction: Liquid wins 2-1, ending NiP’s win streak.

ECSTATIC vs Team Falcons

I’m not going to sugarcoat it. Falcons have too much firepower for ECSTATIC to even feel comfortable here. When you have players that can decide games on their own even against the top teams, the margin for error for team like ECSTATIC shrinks fast.

Sure ECSTATIC can put up a fight, even take on a tiny lead at the start (we know how great Falcons’ pistol round are), but over a Bo3 series it’s usually not enough. Falcons don’t need perfect setups or some crazy tactics – they just need to avoid doing anything dumb and let the skill gap take over.

Prediction: Falcons 2-0, easiest call of the day.