BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Closed Qualifier Round 2 Day 1 Matches Analysis & Predictions

Round 1 filtered out the weaker teams, and the field is now one step closer to the Playoff stage in Malta. The Round of 16 starts here, with only 8 tickets to the LAN kicking off on January 22.

Falcons vs Monte

zonic & m0nesy @ BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
Image credit: HTLV

Falcons bulldozed their way through into Round 2 with an expected sweep against ECSTATIC, with TeSeS, m0NESY and kyousuke putting up good numbers in Falcons’ win. Monte come in Round 2 after pulling off an upset in Round 1 of the qualifier by dismantling NAVI and ruining many people’s pick‘ems, showing that they can hang with the big guns.

But Falcons are not your average opponent. With their raw firepower and individual talent, they’re almost always shoulders above any team they face. With star players like NiKo and m0NESY, backed up by solid support, gives them an advantage in both dueling and map control that most teams can’t match. Sure, Monte’s win against NAVI counts for something, but defeating a top team once doesn’t mean you suddenly solve how to be consistent in closing maps against teams with this much firepower.

Prediction: Falcons sweeps.

Aurora vs GamerLegion

Aurora win PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Image credit: PGL

Aurora is looking like one of the more dangerous teams when things click. Their raw firepower and tempo reads gives them an upset potential against any team on their day. That goes with soulfly still trying to find his groove in his new team – if he meets his potential too, I think Aurora can be one of the toughest opponents to deal with, even for the top teams.

GamerLegion come in after not-so-convincing win over Passion UA, but a win’s a win. They have talent, no doubt, but Round 1’s performance will not be enough if they want to get past Aurora. Last time they met at PGL Masters Bucharest 2025, Aurora swept GL in a dominant fashion, losing only 2 rounds in 2 maps. If Aurora come in swinging, they can easily take this in two. If GamerLegion slows the game and chains a couple of rounds, we could easily hit three maps, but I expect the final result to be the same.

Prediction: Aurora 2-1, with at least one map going to OT.

Liquid vs Gentle Mates

Team Liquid eliminated from StarLadder Budapest Major 2025
Image credit: @TeamLiquidCS

Liquid’s Round 1 win was a tight one. They sent NiP home in thriller Game 3 overtime, with the veterans EliGE and NAF dragging Liquid over the line. This was a somewhat expected result for a team with Liquid’s pedigree – right now they belong at the top of tier 2, and lower tier 1 mix.

Gentle Mates upset M80 in Round 1 – literally sweeping them off their feet. M8 showed they’re resilient and are willing to make any team work for every round.

Gentle Mates coming in with momentum makes this matchup a bit less straightforward. But if Liquid avoid giving up free rounds (which they like to do), they’re simply better equipped to win the series.

Prediction: Liquid 2-1, experience carrying them through.

HEROIC vs paiN

vsm & piriajr join paiN Gaming
Image credit: @paiNGamingCS2

Both teams come into Round 2 sweeping their opponents 2-0, doing exactly they were supposed to do, and not showing more than they needed to. HEROIC looked far more convincing than I thought they would, considering all the recent roster swaps they had. xfl0ud played like a man possessed, boasting a rating of 2.14 over two maps in HEROIC’s win against Friendly Campers.

But paiN arrive with a tad more edge. They played against stronger opposition for the most of 2025, and while they showed mixed results, they didn’t look too much out of place.

If paiN avoids falling behind early, their recent experience against higher-level opposition gives them the edge in today’s matchup against HEROIC.

Prediction: paiN 2-1 HEROIC.

 

Robertino “Tino” Donevski is an esports enthusiast, who somehow manages to juggle intense gaming sessions with the daily chaos of being a father of two toddlers. His approach to esports is as passionate as his dedication to avoiding parenting meltdowns, making him the perfect mix of competitiveness and questionable life choices.
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