We’re now over with the online part – The ESL Pro League Season 23 moves to Stockholm, where the four quarterfinals take place. Team Spirit and MOUZ arrive as the most convincing teams from Stage 2 with perfect 3-0 scores, while NAVI, Aurora, Astralis, and FUT had to grind through the Swiss to reach the Annexet Arena.

Here’s how we think the quarterfinal matchups will shape up.

Team Spirit vs Astralis

Spirit did their job as expected – they had a 3-0 run through Stage 2, including wins over 3DMAX, B8, and G2, without any need of an extra round. Astralis had the opposite experience – they opened with a win against FUT but then dropped matches to MOUZ and Legacy. They faced two elimination matches since that point and kept their run alive with wins against FaZe and FURIA in the decider Round 5.

The head-to-head history heavily favors Spirit. They beat Astralis every time they met, dropping only one map in over three series they’ve played eachother – and that’s in the grand final of PGL Astana 2025. The last time they played was a little over a month ago, at IEM Kraków 2026, where Spirit swept Astralis in the group stage.

Spirit didn’t really meet the expectations early after reinstating magixx and zont1x to the lineup, but they’ve looked a lot more in-sync lately, and the results confirm that. Everything points toward Spirit winning this, including a higher map win-percentage across the pool (except on Ancient). Astralis can keep a competitive map or two, but Spirit’s better recent form and superior firepower makes them a clear favorite.

Prediction: Spirit 2-0.

Legacy vs Aurora

Legacy have been the biggest surprise of the event. Their run through both stages included strong wins over teams like NAVI, Astralis, G2 and PARIVISION. Their only defeat throughout the ESL Pro League Season 23 Online Stage actually came against Aurora in the opening game of Stage 2. Aurora had the same experience, going 3-1 in Stage 2 to qualify to the playoffs, losing only to MongolZ in Round 2.

The head-to-head favors Aurora, but their games are always very, very close. As I said, the teams met earlier in the tournament in one of the wildest series of the stage – a three map showdown, of which 2 were in overtime (first map 25-21).

Seeing the current form and map-performance of these teams, the matchup screams three maps, again. Aurora is the favorite on paper, but Legacy will likely make this one messy once again.

Prediction: Aurora 2-1.

The MongolZ vs Natus Vincere

This one is probably the closest quarterfinal of the bunch – on paper.

The MongolZ did their job mostly, but it was not as convincing as they’d like. Sure they dropped only one map in their wins (besides getting stomped by MOUZ), but every map looked tighter than it should’ve been. Even so, it’s better than how NAVI are performing at this event, looking like a different team each time they enter the server.

The head-to-head between the teams is pretty even, with NAVI holding a small lead in maps overall. The most recent clash was a month ago at the PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026, where MongolZ reverse-swept NAVI in the group stage.

Looking at recent form, The MongolZ have been the steadier side, and the addition of cobrazera seems to be paying off. Although he hasn’t fully replaced the impact Senzu used to bring, he brought an aggressive touch that blends nicely in their style. NAVI on the other hand, have looked far more inconsistent throughout the event. They dropped matches against G2 and Legacy in the Swiss stage, and only managed to secure their playoff spot after barely scraping by 3DMAX in Round 5. I think their recent level of inconsistency will be the difference in this matchup.

Prediction: The MongolZ 2-1.

MOUZ vs FUT Esports

MOUZ are looking like a title contender throughout this event. And with the way they swept through Stage 2 with a perfect 3-0 record, and the absence of Vitality and Falcons, that’s very much on the table here.

FUT had a harder route to the playoffs. They needed the full five rounds of the Swiss stage to qualify, and had a couple of messy series along the way. That unpredictability makes this young team very dangerous, but it also highlights the difference between these teams.

The head-to-head also leans towards MOUZ. The two teams last met at PGL Cluj-Napoca, where MOUZ won in a fairly controlled 2-0 win on Overpass and Mirage.

Map-wise the matchup doesn’t give FUT a clear advantage either, because several of their stronger maps overlap with MOUZ’s comfort picks (except maybe Dust2 where MOUZ is on a 6-map losing spree).

FUT have enough firepower and resilience to keep a map competitive, but MOUZ are consistent throughout this tournament. MOUZ’s discipline should take over a full best-of-three.

Prediction: MOUZ 2-0.