We’re three days in at ESL Pro League Season 23 Online Stage, and the Swiss bracket is about to sort itself out. Two 2-0 teams will take a direct ticket to Stage 2, and the losers from the 0-2 bunch are the first ones being eliminated from the event.

Here’s how we think things will turn out.

Round 3 High Matches (2-0)

Astralis vs FUT

Astralis are now 2-0 after beating Monte 2-1, and then a 2-0 sweep against HEROIC, but in a very  close series. FUT are also 2-0, winning both series 2-1 against M80 and Passion UA.

They already met twice in the past 30 days: Astralis took the BO3 at IEM Kraków 2026 (2-1), but FUT got revenge with a 2-0 sweep at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026 (Mirage 13-4, Overpass 13-7). Both teams’ recent tier-1 match history is all over the place, but I’ll put my trust more towards FUT, simply because they’re playing more like a unit, while Astralis tend to fumble if there’s no any individual showings (especially from ryu/phzy).

Prediction: FUT 2-1.

PARIVISION vs Legacy

PARIVISION are the most convincing and cleanest team so far in Stage 1. Clean sweeps against both SemperFi and paiN (together with recent form) puts them as a clear favorite in this matchup. Legacy’s run has been a bit “louder”. They beat NiP 2-1, followed with a statement 2-0 sweep over G2 to reach to this point.

Legacy will have a confidence boost after that G2 win, sure, but PARIVISION’s form and the ability to suck that confidence right out of Legacy with their slow and methodic playstyle might be too much for the Brazilian team. Apparently adding arT’s aggressive playstyle suits Legacy very well, but PARIVISION is a very adaptive team, and I believe they’ll win this matchup with a statement.

The head-to-head confirms my take – PARIVISION won at their last meet at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025.

Prediction: PARIVISION 2-0.

Round 3 Mid Matches (1-1)

HEROIC vs Monte

HEROIC kicked-off with a 2-0 win over NRG, and then got humbled 0-2 by Astralis in Round 2. Monte did it the other way around – they lost 1-2 to Astralis first, then bounced back with a 2-0 sweep vs NRG. Both teams basically played the same opponents and traded results, and the lack of recent head-to-head history between these two makes me believe this’ll come down to who looks more stable when the game gets messy.

HEROIC’s recent results show that they might be the team to go for here. Monte’s been more up-and-down, and if HEROIC’s structure holds they’ll close this out, but it’s not a freebie.

Prediction: HEROIC 2-1.

3DMAX vs Gaimin Gladiators

3DMAX are 1-1 after losing to paiN in Round 1, then responding with a clean sweep over SemperFi in Round 2. Gaimin Gladiators had the same outcome: lost 0-2 to G2, then upset Liquid 2-1 in a close series.

Although GG upset Liquid yesterday, we’ve got to take Liquid’s horrendous form into consideration. 3DMAX are still a Tier-1 team with a lot more S-Tier events experience than the Brazilian team, and it would be just wrong not to take their side. If 3DMAX play the veto card well, they should easily take this one. GG can make it uncomfortable, sure, but I highly doubt they’ll be able to beat two top15 teams in their first S-Tier event.

Prediction: 3DMAX 2-0.

paiN vs Passion UA

paiN are 1-1 after beating 3DMAX 2-3, then getting humbled 0-2 by PARIVISION. Passion UA are 1-1 too: they smashed Liquid 2-0 in their first game with Senzu and try on the roster, then lost 1-2 to in-form FUT Esports. That’s a “better-looking loss” than paiN’s – Passion UA at least kept it competitive.

PaiN can win if they go hot from the start, but right now, I trust Passion UA’s ceiling a bit more. Senzu is back to his MongolZ days apparently, and he’s not looking like he’s stopping anytime soon. And if the rest of the squad starts matching the numbers he puts up, Passion UA can turn into a serious team.

Prediction: Passion UA 2-1.

G2 vs M80

We saw two version of G2 at ESL Pro League S23: the first one did what they should in Round 1 (2-0 over Gaimin Gladiators), and the second version that got punched in the mouth by Legacy in Round 2 (0-2). M80 on the other hand, did what we somewhat expected with Grim being a new piece in the team – lost 1-2 to FUT, then recovered with a 2-1 win against NiP.

Given the teams’ recent form and their obvious overall quality, I’m still backing G2 here also because their “normal level” is higher than M80’s. Another slip like the one against Legacy could potentially mean G2 will have to struggle a lot more in order to get to Stage 2, and I don’t think hUnter’s troops are ready for another fumble like they did at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026.

Prediction: G2 2-1.

Round 3 Low Matches

Team Liquid vs SemperFi

SemperFi are 0-2 with two straight sweeps (vs PARIVISION and 3DMAX), and no one expected anything different to be honest. But this matchup can be interesting, because Team Liquid are by far the most unpredictable team lately. They lost 0-2 to Passion UA, which is somewhat an acceptable outcome, considering their firepower. But then instead of regrouping and making the job easier for them against Gaimin Gladiators – one of the lowest ranked team in the tournament, they went ahead and got humbled hard.

SemperFi are the lowest-ranked team at this event (#140). But seeing how bad Liquid plays lately, I’ll go on a limb here and say that SemperFi will even take a map here. Who knows, maybe Liquid will be able to dig another low for them and lose? It’s a win or go home situation for them, so I surely hope not. At this point, the franchise’s reputation is at stake here.

Prediction: Liquid 2-1.

NiP vs NRG

Both NiP’s losses went to three maps (1-2 vs Legacy, 1-2 vs M80), and they’ve been competitive in both series, but consistently fell short in the deciding maps. Meanwhile, NRG are 0-2 after getting swept twice (against HEROIC and Monte), and they haven’t really looked close in either matchup (despite what the scoreline says).

The difference is that NiP at least look like they belong in their games, even if they’re not finishing them. NRG are struggling to control the game once the rounds start to slip away, and that’s dangerous in an elimination match.

The last time these two teams met was at Fragadelphia Fragville 2025 Grand Final back in September – a BO5 match that NRG won 3-1 (after dropping the first map). Since then, both teams have had a minor roster change, and given the most recent results and form, NiP are looking like the safer choice in this elimination match.

Prediction: NiP 2-1.