The ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 1 Swiss bracket moves into Round 4. Two teams have already secured their Stage 2 spot – FUT and Legacy (3-0), while NRG and SemperFi are sent home, both finishing with a 0-3 record. The winners of today’s high matches secure their spots in Stage 2, while the losers will fall to a deciding Round 5. On the other end, the low matches will eliminate three more teams, while the winners move on to Round 5.

Here’s how the matches stack up.

Round 4 High Matches

PARIVISION vs Monte

PARIVISION started in a dominant fashion with back-to-back sweeps against SemperFi and paiN. Their structure looked solid  across both series, and they were one of the few that hadn’t dropped a map in the event.

That changed in Round 3, where Legacy pulled one of the bigger upsets of this stage by sweeping PARIVISION 2-0. That loss didn’t derail their run, but it showed some cracks – PARIVISION struggle even when lower-ranked opponents manage to disrupt their pace.

Monte like to play the game similar. Their matches are often scrappy, which suits their individuals – but not PARIVISION’s.

This matchup will be all about PARIVISION’s ability control of the tempo. If they slow the game down to their liking, they should take this easily. And they probably will, if they don’t want to end up in a do-or-die Round 5.

Prediction: PARIVISION 2-0.

3DMAX vs Astralis

3DMAX opened with a close 1-2 loss to paiN, before recovering with two sweeps against SemperFi and Gaimin Gladiators, and they’re now one win away from moving forward to Stage 2.

Astralis opened with wins against Monte and HEROIC, not looking bad at all. However, their momentum stalled in Round 3 when FUT swept them in a qualification match. Despite that setback, they still look like the more prepared team overall. Their mid-round decisions were looking good across their games, while 3DMAX often relied on momentum to close maps.

3DMAX absolutely have the firepower and can easily challenge, but they’re too volatile lately. Astralis’ experience in these kind of matches should give them the edge.

Prediction: Astralis 2-1.

G2 vs paiN

G2’s run has been unpredictable. They opened with a solid win against Gaimin Gladiators, but were quickly humbled with a surprising 0-2 loss against Legacy in Round 2. They managed to scrape by M80 in Round 3 to enter the higher seed in Round 4 to qualify for the next stage.

PaiN’s run has the same pattern – started strong against 3DMAX (2-1), before getting a reality check against PARIVISION in Round 2. Their recovery against Passion UA in Round 3 kept them alive heading into this high-stakes matchup.

Even though they’re not playing to their potential, G2 are still the stronger team individually. G2 already won a series against paiN two weeks ago at PGL Cluj-Napoca, and I can easily see that repeating here.

PaiN can steal a map, but I doubt they’ll manage to close a series against G2.

Prediction: G2 2-1.

Round 4 Low Matches

HEROIC vs Passion UA

Both teams enter this elimination match with two losses in a row. HEROIC scraped by NRG in Round 1, before getting 0-2’d by Astralis and Monte right after. Passion UA showed more resilience, despite having a revamped roster. They swept Team Liquid before losing 1-2 to both FUT and paiN in close series.

HEROIC’s core have been together longer, and they rely on a bit more structured style. In contrast, with Senzu and try now on the roster, Passion UA is looking far more comfortable playing aggressive Counter-Strike. They are not afraid to take risks early in rounds, which on many occasions caught their opponents off guard and created sudden momentum shifts.

This matchup could go either way. HEROIC are arguably more structured as a unit, but looking at Senzu and Kvem’s recent performances, that structure might mean nothing if they get going.

I’ll go on a limb here and give the nod to Passion UA. If they don’t mess up the vetoes, I can see HEROIC getting swept.

Prediction: Passion UA 2-0.

NiP vs Gaimin Gladiators

The Ninjas have had a rough tournament so far. They lost the first two matches by narrow margins, until finally winning 2-1 in the elimination match against NRG (19-16 in OT on the deciding map). Their biggest issue so far seems to be closing out tight maps.

Gaimin Gladiators’ had a bit more chaotic run. They got swept by G2 in the opening round, but recovered with a hard-fought 2-1 upset over Team Liquid, which was a crucial win to keep their campaign alive.

Neither NiP or GG managed to maintain being consistent across an entire series, making it that much harder to take a side in this matchup. However, in theory, NiP should be the “safer” team to back – especially if they manage to clean up their late-rounds execution. Gaimin Gladiators are much more dependent on individual performance in order to take this one.

Prediction: NiP 2-1.

Team Liquid vs M80

This elimination match is a surprising one – considering the expectations coming into the event.

Team Liquid started off with a disappointing loss against Passion UA, followed by an even more upsetting defeat against Gaimin Gladiators (ranked #77). Their win to stay alive came against an even lower-ranked team (SemperFi – #140) in a series that went to a third, decider map.

M80 are also in the same spot, but their losses came from a much stronger opposition. Their aggressive style can cause problems for teams like Liquid that are already struggling to regain form.

Despite all of that, Liquid still possess the higher overall ceiling. Even if that’s just on paper, I strongly believe they’ll live to see another round. If they manage to settle into the series early, their experience should come on top.

Prediction: Liquid 2-1.