ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 2: Round 4 Match Analysis & Predictions

MOUZ and Spirit already booked their tickets to the LAN Finals in Stockholm with a 3-0 record, while HEROIC and Monte are out after going 0-3. Round 4 of the ESL Pro League S23 Stage 2 will push three more teams to the LAN arena, while the three ‘low matches’ will eliminate three more teams, and the winners of those matches will go to the decider Round 5, in a battle against the ‘high matches’ winners for the final spots at the playoffs.

Round 4 High Matches

The MongolZ vs 3DMAX

The MongolZ @ BLAST Bounty 2025 Season 2 — Image credit: Adam Lakomy | BLAST

MongolZ seems to be in a good spot here. They swept both paiN and Aurora in the previous rounds, and although the score doesn’t point to it, both series were very close. 3DMAX opened with a loss to favorite Spirit, but then retaliated also with two sweeps, against FUT and FURIA (the latter being a heavy favorite on paper).

MongolZ lead the overall head-to-head score with a 12-9 in maps and 5-4 in series wins, even if the latest clash at the opening day of FISSURE Playground 2 went 3DMAX’s way (13-10 Inferno, 5-13 Ancient, 13-9 Nuke). Still, I’ll vote for MongolZ to win this, simply because they look to be in a slightly better form.

Even though the wins against FURIA and FUT probably boosted 3DMAX confidence, and they’re playing well enough to drag this deep, this still looks like a better matchup for The MongolZ.

Prediction: MongolZ 2-1.

NAVI vs Legacy

NAVI - Aleksib @ BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025 — Image credit: Stephanie Lindgren | BLAST

There’s no official head-to-head to analyze here, so we’re going with recent form. NAVI destroyed Monte in Round 1 after dropping the first map, then got reverse-swept themselves against G2, before coming back on track against B8 today. Legacy lost the opening match of Round 2 against Aurora in a very competitive match, then tidied up against Monte, then surprisingly walked over Astralis (who I actually had as a favorite in the Round 3 predictions).

Legacy earned my respect at this event: going 3-0 at Stage 1, 2-1 at Stage 2, and now being a one win away from the playoffs. But so is NAVI – and still, they have the higher ceiling. If Aleksib manages to keep arT’s early game aggression in check, NAVI should come out on top.

Prediction: NAVI 2-1.

G2 vs Aurora

G2 - huNter- @ BLAST Open London 2025 — Image credit: Sophie Skittle | BLAST

This one should be close. G2 beat FaZe and NAVI, before getting put in their place by Spirit today. Aurora won against Legacy in Round 1 in that thriller series, then lost to MongolZ in another close series, before getting their second win against paiN today.

Since the move from Eternal Fire to Aurora Gaming, these two have played only one map back at BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025 in June, which G2 dominated. Tomorrow’s game could go both ways, and with their current form, a three-map series is quite likely. G2 feels like the more prepared team at this event, which make me give them the nod.

Prediction: G2 2-1.

Round 4 Low Matches

FUT vs B8

FUT - dem0n @ PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026 — Image credit: PGL

This is an elimination match, so no second chanced for these teams.

FUT opened with a loss to Astralis, then beat HEROIC in Round 2, before getting swept by 3DMAX today. B8 had tougher opponents: they opened with a surprise win against FURIA in Round 1, but then hit a wall against Spirit and NAVI.

There’s only one clash between them in the archives, back at BLAST Bounty Fall 2025, which B8 won. But if we take current form into consideration, that doesn’t mean a thing. FUT are doing very well for themselves lately, taking maps (even series) against stronger teams. In contrast, despite some good days such as the one against FURIA – B8 are trending downwards, with 8 losses in the last 10 games. They’ve shown they can mess up a bracket if they’re given space, but FUT look like the steadier team in this matchup.

Prediction: FUT 2-1.

Astralis vs FaZe

Astralis - jabbi @ BLAST Bounty 2025 Season 2 — Image credit: Adam Lakomy | BLAST

Another elimination match, and this one is probably the ugliest one to call. Astralis opened with a win against FUT, then got nuked after winning the first map against MOUZ, and in today’s game they were looking average at best against Legacy, losing the game 0-2. FaZe were slapped by G2 in the opening series, then lost a close series against paiN in Round 2, before saving their run today against Monte in a very close series (13-11, 13-11).

The head-to-head looks pretty equal: they each have a 2-0 sweep, but Astralis’ one is much more recent (and on the current teams’ cores) – at the PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026. FaZe broke their 5 games loss-streak today against Monte, but even in their win it looked like something doesn’t click for them. Astralis also have the higher win percentages on every map (except Dust2, which they’ll probably ban first), so unless FaZe changes something in the way they play, Astralis should win.

Prediction: Astralis 2-0.

FURIA vs paiN

FURIA @ BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 — Image credit: Stephanie Lindgren | BLAST

FURIA are looking bad, and they should not be here. They finally got their win today against HEROIC to stay alive in the tournament (2-1), but their losses against B8 and 3DMAX in the previous rounds revealed some cracks that I didn’t know existed. paiN lost to The MongolZ in Round 1, then won against FaZe in a competitive series, before getting checked by Aurora today.

The head-to-head clearly favors FURIA, losing only one Bo3 against paiN. But seeing how poorly FURIA plays at this event, I think paiN even have a chance to pull an upset. Still, FURIA are the stronger team on paper, and if they manage clean up the mistakes from the previous rounds, they should eventually grind this one out.

Prediction: FURIA 2-1.