The group stage at IEM Kraków 2026 is done the playoffs are set for the 6th, and now it’s time to check how well we did with our Stage 2 predictions.

The teams we had marked to advance to the playoff bracket were:

• Group A: Spirit, NAVI, FURIA
• Group B: Vitality, MOUZ, Falcons

The actual playoff bracket with the six teams that made it looks a bit different:

• Group A: Team Spirit (1st place – directly to semifinals); G2 Esports (2nd – quarterinfals against Group B’s 3rd place), FURIA (3rd – quarterfinals against Group B’s 2nd place);
• Group B: Team Vitality (1st place – directly to semifinals); Aurora Gaming (2nd – quarterinfals against Group A’s 3rd place), MOUZ (3rd – quarterfinals against Group A’s 2nd place).

So the honest score is 4/6 correct on the group qualifiers: we nailed the 1st seeds (Spirit/Vitality), and 3rd seeds (FURIA/MOUZ), but we missed on the runner-ups – NAVI and Falcons (the teams we didn’t have making it in our predictions were G2 and Aurora).

Where we were right

Spirit were a strong read. We leaned their way early in our predictions (given the fact they had recent IGL, and anchor changes – magixx & zont1x, respectively), but they backed it up by beating NAVI 2-0 to lock the playoff spot, and then taking the Group A’s first seed in the upper-bracket final over G2, 2-1, to secure the direct semifinal slot.

Vitality was probably the safest call. We also had them winning the group, and they did exactly that without dropping a single map throughout Stage 2.

And even with the form dip, FURIA still ended up in the playoff field, taking the messy path. Our “result vs prediction” win here is calling the NAVI elimination match correctly in our Stage 2 Day 3 predictions – FURIA took it 2-1.

Where we got burned

G2 is the big one. We didn’t have them going through from Group A (placed them at 5th in the predictions), and although we were right for the opener game outcome against The MongolZ in the first day of the group stage, we didn’t have them bouncing back after a shaky Play-In stage. They didn’t win Group A, but they did enough to get into the playoff quarterfinals – and that’s a miss on our side.

Aurora replacing Falcons is the other major miss. We backed Falcons as a playoff team here, since the return of kyousuke after missing BLAST Bounty Winter, but Aurora upset them 2-1 early and ended up making the playoffs, while Falcons didn’t.

What this tells us

Our predictions were fairly strong in general on group winners and more structured teams, but the misses mostly came from underestimating G2’s ability to recover, and how big Aurora’s ceiling actually is when they’re in form.

Anyway, with the knockout stage up next, we’ll be taking the same detailed approach in our Playoffs analysis and predictions – and we’ll see how it holds up when the margins are even thinner.