Stage 2 (Group Stage) of the IEM Kraków 2026 is now live, and the format has the same brutal math as the Play-In: win your group = straight to semis, runner-ups and 3rd place = quarter-finals. Everyone else packs their bags on February 3rd.

Below are my Group Stage predictions, ranked 1-8 in each group, with the six Playoff teams called out.

Group A Predictions

This group is stacked with teams that can not only qualify to the Playoffs, but that can actually win the event. On paper, and in recent Tier-1 results/rankings, Spirit/NAVI/FURIA sit a tier above the Play-In qualifiers, and that usually shows over multiple BO3s.

PARIVISION are the biggest question mark for me, coming in from the qualifiers. They just won BLAST Bounty Season 1 and (somewhat) carried that form through Play-In, but groups punish you for even one off-map. And although they’re in good form, they no longer carry the “surprise factor” here, so the bigger teams will be ready for them.

G2 and The MongolZ can absolutely take series off anyone, but the consistency is not there, and that’s key in a bracket like this, which is why I have them ranked low. My read: Spirit take the group, NAVI/FURIA lock quarters.

Playoff teams from Group A: Team Spirit (directly to the semifinals), NAVI (quarterfinals), FURIA (quarterfinals).

Group B Predictions

Although Vitality fumbled in BLAST Bounty, and lost (underestimated) to limping Falcons (played with a stand-in), they’re still the safest bet to win a group in any tournament they’re in.

Another key thing is the opening round draw: we already know that the Group Stage kicks off with matchups like Vitality vs BC.Game, Falcons vs Aurora, FaZe vs 3DMAX, MOUZ vs NRG. That matters because it gives the elite teams “cleaner” paths (if they do their job early).

Aurora have the real puncher’s chance in a BO3, but over a full group bracket (and their current form), I’d much rather trust Falcons and MOUZ to stay consistent and avoid drop-offs between maps that often end a qualifiers run. FaZe is the big name I leave out, not that they lack firepower, but because this group leave no room for slow starts (which they often like to do).

Playoff teams from Group B: Vitality (directly to the semifinals), Falcons (quarterfinals), MOUZ (quarterfinals).