We’re now into Stage 2 of the IEM Kraków 2026, and the Group Stage now finally is starting to separate the real contenders from the passengers. The Play-In wrapped up largely as expected with few upsets along the way, and heading into Day 1 of Stage 2 I’m sitting comfortably with most of my following calls to lend the right way.

Here’s how we see the opening day of Stage 2 should play out.

The MongolZ vs G2 Esports

On paper this should be close – the teams sit neck-and-neck in world rankings, and recent odds reflect that. However, the head-to-head history strongly favors The MongolZ: they’ve won 5 out of 6 series in the past 12 months, with a 10-4 map advantage, and picked up multiple 2-0 LAN sweeps, including the most recent one being in the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 little over a month ago.

These facts alone doesn’t make The MongolZ unbeatable, but it does show they’ve consistently found ways to play against G2’s defaults and exploit their mistakes. But there’s one key factor in this matchup: The MongolZ’s core haven’t played an official map in over a month, and this will also be their first game since cobrazera joined the team. This combination of inactivity and a fresh piece in the lineup brings up doubts, which makes me lean slightly toward G2 winning this series.

Prediction: G2 2-1.

Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION

Over the past 3 months, NAVI’s core post-round discipline and map control metrics are stronger overall, with higher number of average rounds won and a better multi-kill rating, which points out the fact that they give up free rounds less once they gain advantage.

PARIVISION have shown resilience and surprising recent performances – they went unbeaten against three top5 teams in the BLAST Bounty Winter a week ago, and they’re currently on a 7-0 win streak. But their stats are getting slightly more volatile overall, losing a lot more rounds on maps they don’t control. Those kind of gaps can be easily exposed against a team like NAVI, who are comfortable suffocating games once they’re ahead, and a team who took a one-month breather after their great semifinals Major run.

Prediction: NAVI 2-1, in a tight series.

FURIA vs FUT Esports

While FUT came out of the Play-In stage strong, and even upsetting Team Liquid convincingly, this matchup leans toward FURIA for a few solid reasons. They won their most recent BO3 against FUT at the BLAST Bounty S1, with FURIA winning on Anubis and Dust2, while FUT took Overpass in between, showing they can respond when pushed. FUT’s strength up to this point in this tournament has largely been aggression, but against a team like FURIA with good reads and deeper map experience – especially at LAN – that style becomes harder to surprise.

IF FUT can force a third map through disruptive vetoes, they can take a map again, but it’s highly unlikely at this point in the tournament. Unless FURIA choke early, this one should be clear.

Prediction: FURIA 2-0.

Astralis vs Team Spirit

This matchup highly favors Team Spirit. They’re not only higher in world rankings, but their recent form and statistics outshines Astralis in almost every core metric that’s available. In the past three months Spirit have shown higher ratings, better multi-kill impact, and a stronger average rounds-won numbers, which points to their ability to translate early control into sustained leads.

Astralis seems like a capable team now with phzy and ryu on the roster, but this is donk’s Team Spirit, and another early exit like in the BLAST Bounty isn’t an option for them.

Prediction: Team Spirit 2-0.

 Team Vitality vs BC.Game Esports

I give credit where credit is due – BC.Game have played above expectations and well-earned their spot in Stage 2. But this matchup is where the gap is getting too hard to ignore. Vitality are a complete team (if not the most complete), and they’re widely regarded as the best lineup of 2025, with a level of structure that very few teams can compete against. Yes, they fumbled against a limping Falcons at BLAST Bounty while they were playing with a stand-in, but it’s still Falcons.

Over a full best-of-three, Vitality has the ability to control advantages and close maps far better than any team BC.Game have recently faced against.

Prediction: Vitality 2-0.

FaZe Clan vs 3DMAX

The head-to-head between these teams tells a clear story – FaZe have the lead 4-1 across 2025’s meetings, all being clean 2-0 sweeps, with only their FISSURE Playground 2 match being somewhat competitive, where 3DMAX managed to snag a map. When these two teams last met on a big stage – at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 – FaZe took a clean 2-0 victory and controlled both maps from start to finish.

3DMAX are more reliant on hitting their peak to be able to threaten big names. In contrast, FaZe’s roster is built to grind out close maps, and win rounds that don’t go their way.

Prediction: FaZe 2-1.