We’re heading into Day 3 of Stage 2 at IEM Kraków 2026. The bracket has already claimed a few big names, a couple of upsets that fooled us in our Day 2 predictions, have reshaped the expectations, and there’s no room left for slow starts. With upper bracket momentum on the line and lower bracket elimination matches stacking up, today’s games can give a clearer picture of who’s actually ready for the playoffs.

Group A – Day 3

Natus Vincere vs FURIA (Group A Lower Bracket Semifinal)

This matchup has real bite to it, and the recent head-to-head swings show us just how volatile it can be. FURIA’s reverse sweep over NAVI not that long ago, at the Thunderpick World Championship 2025, wasn’t just a comeback – it was domination once momentum flipped. NAVI answered back with a win of their own at the StarLadder Major in a close win in the quarter-finals. That makes this series less about history and more about the teams’ current condition.

FURIA’s win over The MongolZ showed better mid-series adjustments, and ability to recover after a lost map – NAVI showed none of that so far in Kraków. If FURIA can keep their openings clean and avoid tilting, they’re better positioned to edge another three-map series.

Prediction: FURIA 2-1.

FUT Esports vs Astralis (Group A Lower Bracket Semifinal)

Astralis deserve credit for knocking out in-form PARIVISION – jabbi’s performance being a major factor, and they looked far more dangerous than earlier in the event. Still this matchup leans toward FUT based on the better overall form in Kraków. FUT have already shown they can break higher ranked teams when given the room to play their game, and their confidence coming off recent wins matters in a lower-bracket setting. Astralis have improved with phzy and ryu settling in, but their level swings a lot more than FUT’s from map to map.

Over a full best-of-three, FUT’s ability to stay competitive even while being behind, gives them the edge in another close series.

Prediction: FUT 2-1.

Group B – Day 3

Team Vitality vs 3DMAX (Group B Upper Bracket Semifinal)

This is one of the cleaner matchups on Day 3. Team Vitality have won every head-to-head series against 3DMAX over the past 12 months, without dropping a single map. That pretty much matches the pattern we’ve seen from these two teams: Vitality are far better at closing maps once they gain control, while 3DMAX needs to go big from the start in order to stay competitive. 3DMAX are fairly disciplined and know how to keep maps competitive, but asking them to suddenly flip a matchup that’s been one-sided for a year is big ask.

Over a full best-of-three in a win or go home series, Vitality’s structure and consistency should shut the door quickly.

Prediction: Vitality 2-0.

MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (Group B Upper Bracket Semifinal)

Aurora deserve some praise after knocking Falcons into the lower bracket today, after XANTARES and soulfly both delivered strong individual performances to pull the upset.

This matchup has history, and it favors MOUZ. The teams have met twice in the past 12 months, with MOUZ winning both series while dropping just a single map – even if almost all of those maps were close. MOUZ tend to handle Aurora’s style well, especially when series stretch into longer rounds.

Aurora can absolutely push this to three maps again (and even win the series if everything goes according to their plan), but MOUZ’s discipline and ability to close tight games gives them the edge.

Prediction: MOUZ 2-1.

BC.Game Esports vs FaZe Clan (Group B Lower Bracket Quarterfinal)

There’s no direct head-to-head history here, which makes recent form more important. BC.Game didn’t look out of place against Vitality, as a matter of fact they were competitive even, while FaZe got stomped by 3DMAX in the upper bracket. Still, this feels like a classic rebound spot for them, as we’ve seen FaZe in similar situations time and time again, and this is the same core that reached the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 grand final.

There’s a small chance for BC.Game to make this uncomfortable, but if FaZe clean up their basics and their aim don’t fail, their experience should carry them through.

Prediction: FaZe 2-1.

NRG vs Team Falcons (Group B Lower Bracket Quarterfinal)

These two teams have only faced eachother once in the past year, at IEM Dallas 2025, where Falcons won 2-0 convincingly. While NRG showed flashes of nice play in Kraków, they’ve struggled to sustain that level against higher-tier opposition in the past, as well as against MOUZ in Day 2 in Kraków.

Falcons’ loss to Aurora was a setback, but it doesn’t erase the huge gap between these teams. They remain stronger across the board and are far more comfortable in elimination matches such as this series. Given the fact that this is a win or go home match, if they play anywhere their normal level, this should be pretty straightforward.

Prediction: Falcons 2-0.