We’re heading into the final day of the IEM Kraków 2026 Group Stage, and by the end of it, we’ll have a complete playoffs bracket. With seeding on the line at the upper-brackets, and elimination matches in the lower-brackets deciding the last quarterfinal spots, there’s no more room left for mistakes.

Group A Matches – Day 4

G2 Esports vs Team Spirit (Upper Bracket Final)

Both teams already have their playoff spot locked in, but this series decides who skips straight to the semifinals, and who has to grind through the quarterfinals.

Spirit hold the head-to-head edge, winning two of their three meetings, and while most maps between them have been almost always tight (except G2’s blowout on Ancient at BLAST Open London 2025), Spirit have generally looked more consistent across full series.

Spirit are looking like the more composed team throughout IEM Kraków, and with seeding on the line, Spirit just feels like the better equipped team to close the series.

Prediction: Team Spirit 2-0.

FURIA vs Astralis (Lower Bracket Final)

This is a do-or-die match, with the winner moving on to the playoff quarterfinals, and the loser heading back home. The recent head-to-head heavily favors FURIA, who haven’t dropped a single map to Astralis in the last 3 times they faced. That said, Astralis’ form has clearly improved as the event has gone on, and their win over PARIVISION showed they can raise their level under pressure, with ryu and phzy in the squad.

FURIA, however, have been better at bouncing back after rough games, and tend to handle elimination scenarios well. With YEKINDAR and KSCERATO putting up great numbers, and molodoy supporting them on the AWP duties, they’re not looking like ready for an early out of Kraków.

Expect Astralis to make this competitive, but FURIA’s matchup history gives them the edge.

Prediction: FURIA 2-1.

Group B Matches – Day 4

Team Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (Upper Bracket Final)

Like Group A, this upper bracket final is more about seeding than survival.

Interestingly, Aurora dominate the history of head-to-head from their Eternal Fire days, but the last official match between these two was 13 months ago, and we know what Vitality has evolved into since then.

Aurora are looking like they found their form, and proved that by knocking out both Falcons and MOUZ (two top5 teams) to the lower bracket. But Vitality swept BC.Game and 3DMAX earlier, and they’re still the top1 team, looking like they’re out for blood after that loss to Falcons at BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 semifinals.

If Aurora carry over the momentum from their previous games, they can make the series competitive. Maybe even win a map. Winning the series, however, require everything to go their way.

Prediction: Vitality 2-0.

MOUZ vs FaZe Clan (Lower Bracket Semifinal)

These two have crossed paths countless times, but the more recent head-to-head results slightly favor MOUZ. Over the last three months MOUZ comes out on top with 2-1 in series wins and 4-2 in map score, even if the most recent meeting ended with FaZe winning 2-0 at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 quarterfinals. Although FaZe’s peak is still scary, MOUZ have been more consistent across their recent matches, and in a lower-bracket setting where margins are slim, MOUZ’s steady baseline should edge another close three-map series.

Prediction: MOUZ 2-1.

3DMAX vs Team Falcons (Lower Bracket Semifinal)

Looking at the head-to-head stats, Falcons come into this with a slight edge based on recent history, having beaten 3DMAX 2-1 at ESL Pro League Season 22. While 3DMAX have shown they can compete on specific maps and keep series close, Falcons generally have better map pool depth, and (a lot) higher individual firepower.

Although Falcons’ form has been uneven at times in Kraków, this is the spot where experience and confidence tend to matter. We expect 3DMAX to push this deeper than expected, but Falcons’ ability to win key rounds should carry them through.

Prediction: Team Falcons 2-1.

MOUZ/FaZe vs 3DMAX/Falcons (Lower Bracket Final)

This one comes with uncertainty by nature, but based on our previous predictions, this should set up a Falcons vs MOUZ lower-bracket final. In that scenario, Falcons feel like the safer choice because they bring more raw firepower and wider comfort zone across maps, which tends to matter more in a match with stakes of this caliber. MOUZ are very solid when everything stays structured and according to their plan, but Falcons have more ways to win rounds when plans break.

In a long day where pressure builds and margins get thinner, I’d put my trust in Falcons’ ability to grind out a long day.

Prediction: Falcons 2-1.