This one doesn’t need a big sales pitch: The MongolZ come in as the better team and the clear favorite, and it shows everywhere you look. But it’s not like we’ve never seen even bigger upsets.

MongolZ are coming into Thunderpick World Championship 2025 as a title defender, and roster-wise, they are even more settled and scary than last year. The squad – bLitz, Techno4k, Senzu, mzinho, and 910 – have been the core through 2025, and the team’s form has climbed all year. They’re sitting at (or near) the very top of HLTV’s rankings right now, which lines up with how they’ve been playing at big events through the season. In short: this is no longer a “fun upset” lineup; this is a real contender.

9z are no pushovers, just a level down from that ceiling. The expected starters are max, Luken, urban0, levi and HUASOPEEK – a solid mix with enough firepower to take stretches of a map, but they’ve lived more in the #30-#60 ranking band and fluctuate week to week. The upside: they grind, they don’t hand you rounds, and they’ve actually earned their way to Malta after winning the South America Series 2 qualifier earlier in the summer, which matters for confidence.

Format is a straight GSL best-of-three in groups, so both teams get the breathing room they want. No BO1 coin flips here. That slightly favors the better, deeper side – again, that’s The MongolZ – because they can survive a slow start and still grind out two maps.

What does it actually look like on the server? If The MongolZ get comfortable early – bLitz calling clean mid-rounds, Techno and Senzu winning the first few aim fights – it tends to snowball. That’s been the pattern all year when they’ve beaten mid-tier opponents: win space, trade well, keep utility tidy, rinse and repeat. 9z’s path is the annoying one – drag the pace down, force scrappy mid-rounds, make the Mongols re-clear the same corners twice. If max and Luken show up with form, you get a close map and maybe a scare, but they’ll need all the stars to be perfectly aligned.

Bottom line: the data and the eye test point the same way. The MongolZ are ranked at the top, arrive with a stable five, and are priced like it for a reason. 9z can absolutely punch a map if they get the right start – they’re here on merit after winning their regional series – but over a BO3, it’s hard to go against the favorites.

Prediction: MongolZ sweeps 2-0, with 9z making them work for at least one tight half.