Falcons and Vitality have already done their job and are straight to the playoffs. On the other end, with three straight losses, 3DMAX and paiN are sent home as the first teams eliminated from PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026. That leaves Round 4 as pure pressure ground:

• High matches winners lock playoffs;
• High matches losers fall to Round 5 – will play against Low matches winners;
• Low matches losers are out.

Round 4 High Matches

MOUZ vs FUT

MOUZ are looking like the more composed and steadier team of this matchup, but FUT’s relentless approach to the game makes them a problem. This one is the first time these two teams meet in an official match, and although MOUZ are the better team on paper, they’re stepping into an unexplored area here. FUT are playing good Counter-Strike at this event, and it’s backed by their results. Even in the one defeat against FURIA, they made them earn every round.

If MOUZ survive the first punch and get used to FUT’s pace, they should control the pace over the long haul.

Prediction: MOUZ 2-0.

NAVI vs MongolZ

The head-to-head matches between these two is extensive, and it points toward NAVI winning this. Out of 7 series they’ve played in the past 12 months, NAVI won 5 of those (3 series win streak currently), with the most recent being at the Thunderpick World Championship 2025’s semi-final, where they defeated The MongolZ 2-1.

Map-wise, both team have Mirage as their first pick, with MongolZ having a bit higher win percentage. Overpass is an insta-ban for NAVI, while MongolZ apparently don’t like Ovepass in this meta.

If NAVI don’t choke mid-series, and doesn’t mess up the vetoes letting MongolZ have their comfort picks, I think their win streak will continue here.

Prediction: Natus Vincere 2-1.

FURIA vs PARIVISION

FURIA’s wins haven’t always been pretty, but they get the job done when it matters. PARIVISION scraped by FaZe after being stomped in the opener map, while FURIA lost to Falcons in a close series.

PARIVISION already beat FURIA 3 weeks ago in their only head-to-head official matchup at the BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 semi-finals (2-0 sweep). The vetoes comfort is clear: PARIVISION’s Dust2 is 83%, while FURIA’s Nuke is 83% win rate. PARIVISION does not like playing on Nuke (100% ban rate), while FURIA have Ancient as their most banned map.

Given what’s at stake here (the loser will have to the deciding Round 5 in order to advance to playoffs), I don’t think FURIA will allow another mistake. If FURIA steer away from Dust2/Ancient, they should win the series on composure and late-rounds discipline.

Prediction: FURIA 2-1.

Round 4 Low Matches

FaZe vs Astralis

They’ve met only once recently, and FaZe came up on top in that duel, comfortably sweeping Astralis at Stage 2 of ESL Pro League Season 22, but that’s before the phzy and ryu era.

The vetoes here are crucial. FaZe are most comfortable on Mirage (their most first-picked map), where Astralis are currently on a 7 map losing streak, and Dust2, but that’s Astralis’ most banned map. Astralis most first-picked map is Nuke, but FaZe have 70% win rate there – so this series will probably move towards Inferno/Overpass/Ancient. If that’s the case, Astralis have a very tiny advantage – if we focus on the numbers only. In a do-or-die series like this one, I’m still trusting karrigan’s calls and the rest of the individuals to win this one.

Prediction: FaZe 2-1.

B8 vs Aurora

Aurora have historically handled B8, but the only recent matchup was at PGL Masters Bucharest back in late October, where Aurora defeated B8 in the playoff quarter-finals. Aurora still have a slight edge over B8 in terms of recent form and firepower, but the real decider will probably be the vetoes.

Both Aurora and B8 have over 80% on their first-banned maps: Ancient, and Nuke, respectively. In contrast, their first-picks are Dust2 for Aurora, Mirage for B8 – but the thing is, the other team also has good win percentage on both maps. The only big difference is Anubis, where Aurora lost only once in the 5 times they’ve played it – but we have no record of B8 even playing it in recent past.

According to teams’ form, and the vetoes analysis, I’d most definitely throw my money at Aurora. B8 can definitely make them earn every round, but in a do-or-die game, Aurora should make it to Round 5 with little-to-no problems.

Prediction: Aurora 2-0.

G2 vs HEROIC

There’s no recent head-to-head between G2 and HEROIC with the current rosters, which makes this more about the teams’ form in Cluj so far. G2 are looking competitive even in losses. HEROIC, in contrast, are struggling hard to be consistent in this event. Sure they won against 3DMAX yesterday, but who hasn’t recently?

Map-wise, G2 have better stats all over the board, except on Dust2, where HEROIC have higher win percentage – but in much less games.

Given these stats, and the recent form both team have shown, this screams 2-0 in favor of G2 – especially because it’s a do-or-die situation.

Prediction: G2 2-0.